Remember, It's the Halfway Point That Matters
Halfway Point That Matters Over the entire history of the Oil Age... starting in 1859... the world has burned approximately 950 billion barrels of oil. Some of the most respected geologists in the world put the remaining oil reserves at 1 trillion. That sounds like a lot of oil. Until you consider: When you average together peak production dates for all the major oil producing countries... including Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC that have not yet peaked... YOU GET A GLOBAL PEAK PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR SMACK-DAB IN THE MIDDLE OF 2006! That's the conservative estimate. 'We'll Pay $182 per Barrel,' Says a White House Insider Plunging supply and soaring demand... it's the purest law in economics. Matthew Simmons is a former Harvard professor. Now he's an investment banker who manages nearly $56 billion in energy investments. He's been a White House adviser under both Bush and Clinton. Here's what he recently said: 'Oil is far too cheap at the moment... the figure I'd use is around $182 a barrel.' CBS MarketWatch says the coming peak oil crisis will 'dwarf that of 1973.' And the San Francisco Chronicle is saying we're looking at 'social and economic upheaval across the globe...' And it's not just the geological crisis that will make energy scarce. For instance, take a look at China... * General Motors just made an announcement. They're about to double their production of cars for the Chinese market * China had just 700,000 cars in 1993. Now they have 7 million. They also had only 15 million motorcycles then. Now they have over 100 million! * China's energy use alone has already doubled over the last 20 years. Suppose China started using oil at a rate like, say, Mexico? * Right now China uses just 1.7 barrels of oil per Chinese citizen. Mexico uses 7 barrels per person. If China matched those rates, total DAILY oil demand in China would soar to 24 million barrels per day. More than is the United States. And about 30% of the total oil demand worldwide! * China expects to import TWICE as much oil as the United States. within the next 15 years. Their rate of oil demand growth is already double the percentage demand growth worldwide. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand just grew this year at its fastest pace since 1980. Average global demand is 88.1 million barrels a day. Out of that, about 20 million barrels of daily oil demand comes from the United States. That's a hard number to get your head around. Imagine an Olympic-size swimming pool. Drain the water. Fill it with crude oil.. Now do that 9,727 times. Every day of the year. THAT'S A LOT OF OIL! And remember, once it's burned, it's gone for good! 'Yes, But Couldn't a Huge Discovery Come Along and Change the Equation?' Absolutely Not! What are the chances of finding another 90-billion-barrel oil field? Or two fields of 45 billion barrels each? Close to zero. You could go broke looking. In fact, many oil companies already have! (In the 1950s, for instance, George Bush Sr. made millions from his Texas oil business. In the early 1980s, George Jr. had to get OUT of his own businesses... after just about every drill they dropped came up BONE DRY!) The dynamic has completely changed. And why? Because there hasn't been a major new oil field discovery in more than 20 years! Worldwide, net oil discoveries have plunged every five years since 1980. Some of the biggest fields are now between 30 and 100 years old! And they're starting to run dry too! Over the last five years, the world burned 27 billion barrels per year. But the oil industry only discovered 3 billion new barrels per year. How long can you use up nine times what you're finding in replacement? Not long! There were 16 large discoveries of oil in 2000, eight in 2001, three in 2002, and NONE last year. Worldwide, peak discovery was in the 1950s. In the 1990s, that average was one- sixth that total... 9 billion barrels per year! That's next to nothing compared to world oil demand. Even if we DID find another Ghawar... it would only delay the impact of 'E-Day' by less than 24 months. You have to ask... If there's more cheap energy to discover, where is it? Most of the alternative energies -- wind, solar, hydro and even hydrogen -- will take too long to develop to be in place by 2006. Only time will tell... ======================================= http://www.australiansharetrading.com/ the complete online resouse for share trading Please use this aricle, you have my prior consent to do so, just don't change a thing.australian share trading By Nik Halik => http://www.australiansharetrading.com offers share trading news ===========================================
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